The forecast is in, and we’re in the thick of Oscar season. With the Golden Globe Awards airing this weekend, along with the Academy Awards releasing a short list of nominees within various categories a few weeks prior, it is safe to predict which LGBTQ2S+ artists and films will be included in this year’s Oscars ceremony on March 2.
Since there’s a little time before the Oscar nominations are out on Friday, Jan. 17, I’d like to take a moment to share some LGBTQ2S+ nominee predictions.
What definitely is going to get nominated
Best Actress: Cynthia Erivo—Wicked
Cynthia Erivo’s riveting performance as the misunderstood Elphaba in Wicked dazzled viewers and left them in tears on numerous occasions. During the initial awards screening for voters in NYC, you could hear a symphony of sniffles during Erivo’s rendition of “Defying Gravity.” Her soulful vocals send shivers down my spine. Her expression of loneliness and pain in the early parts, morphing into a triumphant turn toward self-actualization, is a feat to behold. By the time the film hits “Defying Gravity,” Erivo brings it to an unfathomably epic level that should secure her a Best Actress nomination. If she gets that Oscar nod, Wicked will mark her second nomination after the one she received for her portrayal of Harriet Tubman in the lacklustre biopic Harriet. Erivo should be a lock since everyone within the industry is loving Wicked.
Best Actress: Karla Sofía Gascón—Emilia Pérez
As Beanie Feldstein once said in Lady Bird, “It is the titular role.” Karla Sofía Gascón is Emilia Pérez, and she is the heart and soul of the movie, whether you like the film or not. I am on the “or not” side of this debate. Despite the constant focus on the film’s prominent supporting actresses, Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña, Gascón has been lauded for bringing the film to life with her charm, sincerity and exquisite vocals. Gascón, a Spanish trans actress, boldly went to great lengths on her own volition by wearing heavy makeup to look unrecognizable as Pérez’s pre-transition look. That commitment alone deserves a nomination. She’s already received nods elsewhere through the gamut of the awards race, including the Golden Globes. But if Gascón gets an Oscar nomination, she will make Oscar history as the first openly trans actor to be recognized in any acting category. Let’s hope some history will be made soon, darn it.
Best Actor: A24’s soft boys; Daniel Craig—Queer; Colman Domingo—Sing Sing
A24 has a lot on their plate this year, but two of their biggest Oscar locks lie in Best Actor. One for Daniel Craig’s portrayal as William Lee in Luca Guadingino’s Queer, and then another for Colman Domingo as John “Divine G” Whitfield in Sing Sing. Well, make that three, for they also have Adrien Brody as László Tóth in The Brutalist, but we’re covering the queer performances over here.
As Lee, a fictionalized version of the late novelist William S. Burroughs, Craig cultivates a sensitive exterior of romantic longing and connection unlike any he’s ever portrayed before. There are instances of Lee having no chill regarding his major crush on his aloof love interest Eugene Allerton (Drew Starkey), and you completely forget that Craig once played James Bond, the biggest womanizer in film. It’s a shattering portrayal that has left every single major awards show nominating him for Best Actor. It’s simply his career best performance, and major voting bodies agree.
As Divine G, you have Domingo portraying an inmate at the titular prison for a crime he didn’t commit. The only things keeping his hope alive are his contributions as a playwright and a star actor in the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program (a real thing at Sing Sing) on every occasion. When he is on stage, he shines as an eloquent thespian, and the way he carries himself signifies a cathartic release. However, when he recruits a hotshot street-wise inmate, Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin (playing a version of himself), his ideologies clash with Divine G, and you witness him unravel in an empathetic, slow-burning passion that criticizes the crushing criminal justice system in America. If you thought Domingo was great in Rustin, Sing Sing is him at his finest.
Similar to Craig, Domingo has always appeared on many Best Actor ballots throughout the award season. It’s like a triple A24 package deal; you can’t escape Domingo, Brody and Craig in the Best Actor race, with none of them falling by the wayside and getting snubbed. They are here to stay.
Best Animated Feature: Memoir of a Snail
Australian stop-motion animator Adam Elliot has been an industry darling for years. His films, such as Mary and Max, are underappreciated treasures among adult animated features. Subsequently, Elliot achieved a significant milestone by becoming the first gay filmmaker to receive an Oscar in the Best Animated Short category for his 2016 short, Harvie Krumpet.
His long-awaited feature-length follow-up, Memoir of a Snail, is nothing short of excellent. The movie is about Grace Pudel (voiced by Sarah Snook), a woman who had a traumatic childhood but finds comfort in collecting snail parts. She wants to find her twin brother, Gilbert (voiced by Kody Smit-McPhee), a fearless arsonist, whom she hasn’t seen since she was young. Memoir hits you with sheer emotional brutality but gives you a feeling of hope toward the end, much like Elliot’s other works. The film has been bulldozing through the Best Animated Feature race, representing adult animated features in a field of kids’ movies. The film has garnered numerous accolades, ranging from the Cristal Award for a Feature Film at Annecy to the Best Film at the BFI London Film Festival, marking it as the first animated feature to be awarded the prize. It’s also currently nominated for a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice Award. There is no doubt that Elliot will be returning to the Oscars in the near future.
Best Original Song: Maren Morris “Kiss the Sky”—The Wild Robot
Country singer Maren Morris came out as bisexual during Pride Month this past year. Morris also provided an inspiring banger track for the sweet and heartwarming Dreamworks animated flick The Wild Robot. Morris’s original song “Kiss the Sky” plays during a powerful training montage during which the robot Roz (Lupito Nyong’o) prepares her adopted runt goose son, Brightbill (Kit Connor), to fly before migration. It is a highlight sequence within the film, and the inspirational lyricism, coupled with Kris Bowers’s triumphant score, makes for one of the best original songs of the year. The track has been nominated for Best Original Song throughout the entire award season, including the Critics Choice, the Golden Globes and it’s currently on the Oscars short list. And if it gets an Oscar nomination, it will mark the first for Morris.
Best Costume Design: Paul Tazewell—Wicked
When you need iconic new looks for your movie musical adaptation, you go to costume designer Paul Tazewell. The fashion designer brings colour and delight to a character’s wardrobe, and his credits include Harriet, West Side Story and The Wiz Live!. Now with Wicked, he’s aiming for his second Oscar nomination. Tazewell’s previous nomination was in 2022 for Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story. His work in bringing Elphaba’s and Glinda’s iconic outfits to life—from their days at Shiz University to their grand journey to the Emerald City—is brimming with cinematic details involving glitter and glam. Many of the ’fits are particularly majestic when the movie stops to allow a character to undergo a costume upgrade such as Galinda showing off her Ozdust ballroom dress or Elphaba showing off her final Wicked Witch ’fit by “Defying Gravity.” Don’t be surprised if Tazewell receives another nomination next month.
What maybe, juuuust maybe, will be nominated
Best Documentary Feature: Will & Harper
The delightfully funny and emotionally reflective road-trip doc about Will Ferrell and Harper Steele made the official Oscar short list for Best Documentary Feature Film. Since Sundance last January, audiences have been captivated by this reflective story about a woman rediscovering America alongside her best friend after coming out as her true, authentic self. Netflix will do their utmost to secure an Oscar nomination for a film that they acquire with major Oscar potential. Particularly when it’s a documentary (see: Dick Johnson Is Dead). The original Kristen Wiig ditty “Harper and Will Go West” is also in the running for Best Original Song. Historically, the doc category has been known to refrain from nominating celebrity-centric docs, and despite the predominant focus on Steele in Will & Harper, the presence of Ferrell may cause some discomfort. Fingers crossed that the doc makes it to the final five.
Things that won’t be nominated but should be, darn it
Best Original Screenplay: Pedro Almodóvar—The Room Next Door
The Room Next Door is Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language feature, and it hasn’t been as popular with voters compared to his Spanish-language films such as Parallel Mothers, Pain & Glory and All About My Mother, to name a few. Maybe because the movie is about suicide and the Academy doesn’t get the textured nuances Almodóvar offers. It still has his signature wit, charm and dimensional characterizations of two women at a crossroads of their relationship, which are all hallmarks of a great Almodóvar flick. The film also bears a remarkable performance by Tilda Swinton as Martha, a woman who wants to end her life, and enlists her longtime friend Ingrid (Julianne Moore) to accompany her to a house in upstate New York where she can off herself, but on her own terms and in her own time. It’s rather a rich and darkly comedic take on agency and friendship that feels completely like Almodóvar in every facet. The film also has had a good reception from critics, currently sitting at an 86 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, but alas it hasn’t made any noise outside of a few nominations for Swinton’s performance at a few U.S. critic group awards.
A24’s Queer Spectacular [Love Lies Bleeding, Problemista and I Saw the TV Glow] for Best Original Screenplay
Last year, A24 released some great LGBTQ2S+ features, including Love Lies Bleeding, Problemista and I Saw the TV Glow, all bearing remarkable original screenplays. Every one of them made noise within the award season, but only in the independent award spaces like the Independent Spirits and the Gotham Awards. However, it is frustrating that the Academy and A24 themselves have paid them little attention and instead opted to focus on larger projects like The Brutalist. That’s not to discredit The Brutalist, for the Brady Corbet film is a remarkable odyssey of the Jewish immigrant experience. It focuses on a Hungarian-Jewish architect, László Tóth (Adrien Brody), who immigrates to the United States following the Holocaust in order to await the arrival of his family. He starts anew in Pennsylvania and is taken under the wing of a rich industrialist family, whose patriarch (Guy Pearce) hires him to design a community centre for his mother. And because it’s America, said rich family slowly begins to exploit his skills. It’s truly a masterpiece unlike no other.
The Oscars are scheduled to air on March 2, 2025, with Conan O’Brien hosting.
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