Will the IOC ban trans women from the Olympics?

It’s likely that the International Olympic Committee will soon ban trans women from competing in female categories at the Olympics.

Back in 2021, the IOC urged international sport federations to create their own guidelines for the eligibility of trans athletes in lieu of having a blanket rule prohibiting trans women from competing in women’s divisions. That changed when the IOC’s newly appointed president Kirsty Coventry opened up new discussions about trans athletes with the “Protection of the Female Category” working group.

Last week, IOC’s director of health, medicine and science Dr. Jane Thornton presented a review of the working group’s findings, alleging that trans women have “permanent physical advantages.” This is in contrast to a study from just last year which found that trans women could be at a physical disadvantage compared to cis athletes.

This probing into trans athletes at the Olympics follows a slew of targeted attacks on trans women and girls in competitive sports. It also coincides with Donald Trump’s executive order banning trans girls from gendered sports in schools that receive federal funding—as well as his plans to bar trans athletes from competing at the 2028 Summer Games in Los Angeles.

While this potential new policy could take shape next year, there are still a lot of unknowns. Particularly when it comes to how it’s rolled out and enforced and whether a ban like this could face legal challenges.