The prospects of an early federal election are looking more inevitable following Justin Trudeau’s sobering announcement that he will resign as prime minister later this spring after nearly a decade in power.
All proceedings before Parliament have essentially been paused until March 24 during this period of prorogation, while the Liberal Party searches for its next leader. Some of the top contenders expected to join the leadership race include former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and former central banker Mark Carney.
During the last two years, Trudeau’s approval ratings have rapidly declined and current public opinion polls have the Liberals trailing in a distant second place, but what does a potential Conservative majority government helmed by Pierre Poilievre mean for queer and trans people?
Xtra spoke with 10 LGBTQ2S+ community leaders to measure the mood in the country and to gain a better understanding of the key issues that are top of mind heading into the next election.
Here’s what they had to say:
Pam Rocker, community activist and faith leader based in Calgary, Alberta
“As somebody who is based in Alberta, I’m seeing the policies that were passed by Danielle Smith’s government and it makes me even more anxious about how those sorts of policies are going to be supported on a federal level, potentially in the next election,” Rocker says. “I think Trump’s rhetoric definitely has a foothold in Canada, so it’s hard to not feel pessimistic about our future.
“We have to be realistic that a Poilievre win would mean a Project 2025 for Canada. Those same ideologies have been arising in Canada for years and I feel like it’s something that we really need to be watching closely because folks are already trying to gain votes by being against the queer community and I don’t see any reason why Poilievre wouldn’t implement some of the same things that we’re seeing happening in the States, or the horrible things that we see implemented in Alberta happening on a federal level,” she adds.
“Folks are understandably frustrated with Trudeau: to me that that makes sense, but I also wonder what the alternative is and is there a realistic alternative that has a chance to beat Poilievre? I honestly don’t know at the moment,” Rocker says. “It’s not clear to me yet if there is a Liberal candidate who is ready, willing and able to take on the pressing issues of injustice that we are facing in Canada, especially as anti-queer and anti-trans rhetoric and legislation are becoming more popular talking points for the Conservative party.
“Similar to Biden’s resignation, a new leader could revitalize the party, but could also not be taken as seriously. What I know for sure is that a Poilievre government will be costly in unimaginable ways.”
Sherwin Modeste, executive director of Pride Toronto
“I’m worried. Primarily because of the shift that we have been seeing toward a right-wing extremist government getting into power that has really targeted the LGBTQ2S+ community … it is concerning that we are going to have to start that fight to protect our rights all over again because those rights were given after years of fighting, but we know that at the stroke of a pen those rights could be taken away from us,” Modeste says.
“Canada prides itself on being a defender of human rights. But being a defender of human rights means that we will defend all, including the LGBTQ2S+ community. And my call is for no matter who remains in power, that those rights are not taken away and we continue to be that strong voice on the global stage for the LGBTQ2S+ community, including those who are seeking refuge here in Canada.”
Fae Johnstone, executive director of the Society of Queer Momentum, Ottawa, Ontario
“We’ve seen Conservative parties on the provincial level dabble increasingly in anti-queer and anti-trans rhetoric and policies. We’ve seen efforts to restrict the freedom, the rights and the healthcare access of trans folks and their families. And unfortunately, the leader of the Conservative party federally has come to the defence of those premiers and so many of us are worried that we’re going to see a Conservative party that returns to its roots and embraces, once again, their long legacy of homophobia and transphobia in the 2025 federal election,” Johnstone says.
“There’s a real worry that we’ll see a retraction of the federal role in advancing equality and rights for queer and trans people. Last year, Conservatives passed two motions at their convention, which, if implemented, would severely restrict healthcare access to trans young people, as well as ban transgender women from accessing services and support that they need to live healthy and fulfilling lives,” she adds. “We don’t know how far they’ll go. And my hope is that they recognize that this anti-gay rhetoric isn’t in the best interest of Canadians.”
Margaret Froh, president of the Métis Nation of Ontario, Barrie, Ontario
“Heading into the next election, I’m thinking about things like the rise of hate crimes in Canada, which continues to be a major challenge for our communities. I think that you see actors out there in the world like Donald Trump and others who really contributed to this culture of saying whatever comes to mind, not [having] any concern about things like human rights,” Froh says.
“You see this sort of a pushback against the government in things like the occupation of Ottawa, and in the same space where people are protesting for freedom, you’re seeing hate,” she adds. “I don’t think it’s a coincidence that in these arenas where intolerance is present and embraced that we’re seeing anti-queer, anti-trans, anti-Indigenous messaging as well.
“The embedding of respect for queer, Two-Spirit and LGBTQ+ folks within our human rights law is something we cannot take for granted. We actually have to hold society and government institutions to account, to ensure that they don’t back down on those things.”
Latoya Nugent, head of engagement at Rainbow Railroad in Toronto, Ontario
“A particular concern is the current narrative around how refugees are viewed by the public. We’ve been noticing polls or surveys that are showing that positive attitudes seem to be changing or dwindling a bit, and that is of concern because it is a part of what may be influencing how the government responds,” Nugent explains. “We’re fearful of what may happen to our ability to support people who are overseas and at risk because of their queer or trans identity.
“We could potentially see that many at-risk LGBTQ2S+ people who would need access to resettlement pathways here in Canada may not have that access, because the cap on asylum claims has been so significantly reduced,” she adds. “Refugees are being scapegoated, even though they make up a really, really small fraction of the number of immigrants who are welcomed to Canada on an annual basis.”
Anna Murphy, community advocate, Calgary, Alberta
“When it comes to the everyday challenges facing our neighbourhoods, it is things such as affordability, the cost of living, how to build an economy that is resilient and sustainable, that generates good-paying jobs. These are the issues that are front and centre for everyday Canadians across the country,” Murphy explains. “Folks don’t necessarily think that if they vote in a particular way that it will be detrimental to equity-deserving individuals, because we have all been sold this idea that Canada is and always will be a multicultural, diverse nation, and it should stay that way. But we have to understand that there are political leaders and political actors that very much do not support that vision of Canada. They do not support equity, diversity and inclusion.
“So right now, in terms of progressive politics, we have to do our best to dial down the rhetoric and to do our best to bring people together rather than divide. And so part of that is understanding the issues that are facing everyday Canadians,” she adds.
Kent Peterson, president of CUPE Saskatchewan, White Fox, Saskatchewan
“I’m worried about what it would mean to have a Conservative majority government in Ottawa and what someone like Pierre Poilievre could do if he felt that he needed to throw a vulnerable group of people under the bus for his own political gain,” Peterson explains.
“At the provincial level, Scott Moe, the premier of Saskatchewan, and his conservative government decided to suspend Charter rights for trans children in the province, which they did using Bill 137 and the evocation of the Notwithstanding Clause pre-emptively, and so the impact that has on an already marginalized group of people cannot be overstated,” he says. “I worry about that being deployed on a national scale. The federal government has never used the notwithstanding clause in Canada’s history. And I think Pierre Poilievre would happily be the first.
“The reality is the people who attack, threaten and strip away rights from the LGBTQ2S+ community are the same people who will attack, threaten and strip away rights from Canada’s workers,” he adds.
Albert McLeod, co-founder of Two-Spirited People of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba
“There’s always been a push back against the Liberals, particularly on their stance on feminism and as well as the support for LGBTQI+ folks. But you know, Canada really is a beacon for queer people around the world in terms of what can be achieved. The improvements for transgender, Two-Spirit and LGBTQI+ people benefit everybody—not just that community. It’s a whole collective movement around equity and justice and inclusion. Those are really important aspects of Trudeau’s legacy that I hope to see continue, because in many ways, it’s just beginning,” McLeod says.
“We can’t go backward to old colonial ideas about the gender binary or heteronormativity. First Nations, Métis and Inuit children in schools have a history of inclusion of transgender people. It’s not new; it may be new to settler society, but not to us. And that transphobia is damaging to children who should be studying and not worried about gender-based violence against them by the system or the government.
“The Liberals, under the leadership of PM Trudeau, made significant contributions to the 2SLGBTQI+ liberation movements [and] Canada is only one of three states that have ever apologized to their 2SLGBTQI+ citizens for colonial oppression and harms,” McLeod adds.
Tyler Boyce, executive director of the Enchanté Network, Ottawa, Ontario
“This is going to be a critical election for queer and trans communities. And what’s top of mind for us is defending any roll backs to hard-won progress over the years, so making sure that, yes, we’re a partner to any incoming government in terms of advancing queer and trans human rights, but we’re also going to be an accountability partner in terms of making sure that there are no roll backs to the fundamental freedoms that we’ve fought for,” Boyce says.
“There needs to continue to be a clear focus on addressing the rise in hate crimes and discrimination against our communities. So we’re really looking forward to ensuring that’s not only a part of the eventual mandate for whatever government takes power after next year’s election but also that it’s going to be part of the election conversation,” he says. “We really want to make sure that social awareness, social understanding and social cohesion are not being used to divide Canadians, but that in any sort of electoral rhetoric, there should be a message of making sure that we’re coming together as Canadians and not punching down on those most vulnerable in our communities.”
Celeste Trianon, community activist, Montreal, Quebec
“I’m worried about the potential for federal anti-trans legislation, that’s something that a lot of folks right now are fearing pretty badly, and we’re seeing it by cases of anti-trans laws, notably in Alberta and Saskatchewan right now, but there’s very much a possibility of it spreading elsewhere. We’re seeing attempts to introduce anti-trans laws in jurisdictions typically considered safe, such as British Columbia, [and] there very much is a possibility of things getting worse, really quick. And that is something I am very concerned about because anti-trans laws very much increase the risk of existing in public as a trans person,” Trianon explains.
“Gender-affirming-care bans are not designed to protect trans youth. They are designed to remove them from public life, out of sight, out of life, while they suffer and they end up dying,” she says. “Poilievre has suggested many domestic policies that would remove trans women from public life in the form of bathroom bans and treatment bans, which are measures which have already been suggested by caucus. It’s only going to get worse.”
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