Welcome to RuPaul’s Drag Race Power Rankings! Every week, we’re debriefing the week’s new episode of RuPaul’s Drag Race Season 17 to determine which queens are riding high, and which need she-mergency care. We’ve reached the final stage of the season, and the top four queens are set. Who just missed out on her chance at the crown?

5. Suzie Toot (last week: 2)—ELIMINATED

Well, that’s a twist. While Suzie’s edit did look a little hairy mid-season, I thought things had course-corrected enough for her to be a safe bet for the finale. But the double shantay last week plus Jewels Sparkles winning this week meant someone other than the statistically poorest-performing queen had to go, and Suzie did genuinely perform the worst this week. It was, frankly, a terrible idea to return to the purest form of Suzie Toot for the finale. Ru noted that she has experimented this season, so Michelle Visage’s ranting about Suzie being stuck on one thing rings a bit hollow. But in these modern seasons, the judges do value growth above basically all else. Returning to her roots for the final in-season episode was never going to be a successful game plan. And she wasn’t the only queen docked points for sticking too close to her brand: Sam Star got criticized for it, too.

Look, Suzie deserved to be in the finale based on her performance this season. If the final five of Season 14 weren’t so poorly received, I could have imagined Ru punting again and just sending all of them through to the endgame. But someone had to pull the short straw. If it’s any consolation, I don’t think Suzie would’ve won this season—but I do think this shock elimination juices up her future All Stars run in a big way. If you’re an All Star queen and she’s on your cast, watch out: next time may be her chance to win it all.

4. Sam Star (last week: 1)

Not the final note Sam would’ve chosen to end her journey on, I assume. Her big redemption moment from last week was muted by falling into the bottom two once again, and now she’s heading into the finale with the least momentum of the final four. I would actually put her odds at a win at the lowest—a far cry from just a few weeks ago, when I thought she was second only to Onya Nurve. Like her drag mom before her, I think Sam is destined to fall short in this finale. Though if she follows Trinity the Tuck’s trajectory, she’ll be back with a vengeance in her All Stars run.

I do question whether Sam has enough space left to grow to actually win a second run, though. Trinity came back with a new brand and a leveled-up comic sensibility. Snatch Game, which she was thoroughly mediocre at in her first season, became one of her calling cards. She snatched up four wins in eight winnable episodes, and only once for something she already won for in Season 9 (the acting challenge). Sam, conversely, has had her growth arc all in one season. She can come back more polished, and with fewer runway pieces borrowed from her drag family—but I don’t see her being able to do a growth arc again. For that reason, I actually would advise Sam to take some time off before coming back. As Latrice Royale noted, she’s young, but she has some old-school ways about her. If she gives herself the space to mature as a person, not just as a competitor, she could come back as an all-new Sam.

Of course, she still has to not win this season before we can even start to think about All Stars. But unless she pulls off something shocking, I think that’s all but a certainty.

3. Lexi Love (last week: 3)

If we were still in the Logo era of Drag Race, I would say Lexi has absolutely no shot in the finale. She was never able to get fully out of her head, and her track record reflects that of a queen who struggled all season long. Her two wins were solid, but in only one other episode (the Betsey Johnson design challenge) was she even a contender for the win. She never landed in the bottom two, which I guess makes her stand out from the rest of the final four, but there were several largely underwhelming weeks where she either placed safe or low. This is hardly the run Lexi fans hoped for at the start of the season.

But we’re not in the Logo era, and if there’s one common thread we’ve seen in both the VH1 and MTV eras, it’s that narrative is still a big part of any queen’s victory. Symone was the seemingly invincible diva who nonetheless got in her own head, even landing in the bottom two twice—unprecedented for a main season winner at that point. When she triumphed, it still felt satisfying despite her dominance in the competition. Kylie Sonique Love was the early-season queen reintroducing herself to us after over a decade away. Willow Pill was the surprisingly cunning strategist who taught the others not to underestimate her. Jimbo was the golden child who struggled all season with lip syncing, only to finally figure it out. Even someone like Nymphia Wind, who struggled to emerge in the edit last season, got a big boost in the final in-season episode for her story.

The same can be said for Lexi, who revealed the full extent of her backstory in her interview with Latrice, including a human trafficking incident in her past. Michelle called her personal history “harrowing,” and it’s hard not to be even more impressed with Lexi’s grit and determination after this episode. Unlike Nymphia, though, Lexi has been letting us into parts of her story all season long, be it about her relationship with her mom, her origins in drag or even showing us her LinkedIn page. Of anyone, I feel like I know Lexi the best among the finalists. I can’t bet on her victory based on her track record, but if narrative wins out once again, don’t be shocked if she’s America’s Next Drag Superstar. She’s an unlikely champion, but a lot of Lexi’s life has been unlikely—and she’s persisted nonetheless.

2. Onya Nurve (last week: 4)

A couple weeks ago, I declared that Onya had won it all—the only outstanding detail was the crowning. I’m going to walk that declaration back a bit, while saying that Onya is still by far the safest bet to ultimately declare victory. My main point of concern is something Latrice said about their interview: that Onya might lose out on opportunities because of how it feels to interact with her. Sure, no one can “be a joy” at all times, as Latrice put it. But this final in-season episode is effectively a job interview to be not just on the RuPaul’s Drag Race Live stage, but to be America’s Next Drag Superstar. Onya didn’t do a great job of selling herself for this opportunity—at least, not as well as her fellow competitors did.

We saw that come through again in the critiques, as Ru said Onya had come across as guarded in the competition. It took me by surprise, considering how much we’ve heard from Onya—but admittedly, a lot of that has been in confessionals. To the judges, Onya has just been an incredibly competent, capable queen. As I said in Lexi’s write-up, in the Logo days, that would’ve guaranteed Onya a win. In this modern era … it might be what trips her up. But I do think Ru bringing this up now presents a final challenge of sorts to Onya: if she can come into the finale open, vulnerable and ready to deliver emotionally as much as she does competitively, I think she’ll win easily. If she comes in off her game, she may be in trouble.

Like I said, I do still think betting on an Onya victory is the right call. But I don’t think it’s a guarantee—which isn’t what I expected I’d be saying a couple weeks ago.

1. Jewels Sparkles (last week: 5)

A season that seemed resistant to underdog narratives pulled off a big one in the last episode before the finale. Jewels survived last week’s brush with danger thanks to an undeniable lip sync, then promptly came roaring back in this episode. Yes, she was great in every category this week, and she absolutely deserved this win. But I think something to keep in mind is that Jewels is almost perfectly suited for the kind of queen Drag Race is looking for at this moment in time. She’s got a clear aesthetic, pleasing especially to younger fans, but it’s still moldable. She performs like few others can, and can pick up different styles easily. She’s young, eager and has a lot of fight in her. Of course a challenge about trying to be in RuPaul’s Drag Race Live—World of Wonder’s clearly preferred career path for queens at this juncture—would be an ideal fit for her. She was teed up for success this week, and she knocked it out of the park.

If anyone is looking like a genuine spoiler in the race to become America’s Next Drag Superstar, it’s Jewels. She’s the whole package, and while she technically has the worst track record among the final four, it’s looking a lot better with this last win. She’s been in the bottom as many times as Sam, and has won as many times as Lexi. Most crucially, she has the momentum going into the finale. We don’t have any reports on what the finale format is as of the time I’m writing this, but if it’s either a Lip Sync for the Crown or an individual solo performance, I see her killing it. And depending on how things go for the other queens, she may have better odds. Put it this way: against Onya in a hypothetical final two, I do think Jewels likely loses. But against Lexi or Sam? I could see this underdog taking it home.