Welcome to RuPaul’s Drag Race UK Power Rankings! Every weekend, we’ll debrief the week’s new episode of RuPaul’s Drag Race UK Season 4 to determine which queens are riding high, and which need she-mergency care. Michelle Visage’s first stint as hostess results in a shocking elimination—but was Ru really behind it all?

6. Dakota Schiffer (last week: 3)—ELIMINATED

Well, at least Dakota can carry the honour of being the only queen on a regular format RuPaul’s Drag Race season eliminated by someone other than RuPaul. (I guess if you believe Ru was really in Michelle’s earpiece, that’s not the case, but I’ll maintain my skepticism.) Look, I’m not so much of a Dakota stan that I’ll deny she deserved the bottom two, or that the lip sync was a blowout on either end. This was her third time in the bottom, and while I think she did better throughout the competition than some of her fellow queens—Pixie Polite to an extent, and Jonbers Blonde to a greater one—she was clearly running into a wall with the judges regarding her makeup and silhouettes. I think it was only a matter of time before they sent her home.

But Dakota’s is the latest in a string of non-ideal departures that have dulled the momentum of this season. Baby’s departure was of her own accord, but imagine if, instead of losing Le Fil and Dakota, they rounded out the final five with Black Peppa, Danny Beard and Cheddar Gorgeous. I’m not exaggerating when I say that would be one of my favourite final fives ever. It’s a shame we won’t see it, and a bummer to see the queen who rose through the ranks to become my fave of the season cut in sixth place.

5. Pixie Polite (last week: 5)

All due respect to Pixie, but I think this week would’ve been a fair point for her to depart. As the other queens and judges noted, she made an absolute mess of her partner’s mug during the makeover challenge, and her padding work for “Trixie Truelove” left much to be desired as well. Moreover, her lip sync to “Miss Me Blind” by Culture Club was not demonstrably stronger than Dakota’s—in fact, I’d have given Dakota the edge. Alas, this was Pixie’s first lip sync to Dakota’s third, and I think the latter would’ve needed to score a blowout victory to stay.

The problem is that, with no real storyline investment (the minor jealousy arc with Danny went nowhere) and no individual challenge wins, Pixie’s win equity is basically nil at this point. She is almost certain to be the next queen out the door, since the judges have seemingly jumped aboard the Jonbers Express. Even if she does suddenly pull out all the stops in these next two challenges and make it to the end with three wins, I still don’t see her winning over Cheddar or Danny. The best I can imagine for Pixie is a strong endgame run that gets her to the finale over Jonbers.

4. Jonbers Blonde (last week: 2)

Listen, I very much enjoy Jonbers’s presence on this season, but I will admit it’s shocking she’s here in the final five. Le Fil, Baby and Dakota were all safer bets to make it this far—and they had at least one win each, compared to Jonbers’s zero. It is difficult to not have a RuPeter Badge this season. Literally only Sminty Drop, Starlet and Just May accomplished the same, and they went out in 9th, 11th and 12th, respectively.

More to the point, I would argue Jonbers hasn’t even been particularly close to a win. Danny Beard’s victory in the Rusical was undeniable, as was Cheddar Gorgeous’s in Snatch Game (unless you’re a delusional Little Schiffer like me). What would be Jonbers’s argument for a win this season at this point? Survival, as the queens joked in the cold open this week? Survival matters, but especially when going up against some megawatt stars, Jonbers can’t help but feel like an also-ran. Still, I find myself hoping she can stick around until near the end, just because she’s fun to watch.

3. Black Peppa (last week: 6)

I am so frustrated with Peppa’s trajectory this season. She’s clearly such a star, as evidenced not just by her performances and runway looks, but also by how she so naturally and compellingly opens up about herself and her experiences. She’s magnetic without feeling like she’s putting on a persona. It’s made her perhaps my favourite character this season, even as her work as a competitor has fallen short of expectations.

Still, I put much higher odds on Peppa to turn things around in these next few weeks. There are two challenges left, and if she can win both, she’ll go into the finale with the same number of RuPeter Badges as Cheddar and Danny. That could make for one hell of a finale, actually—U.S. Season 3-esque, when Manila Luzon’s late-game run of wins put her on the same number of victories as Raja and Alexis Mateo. As a Peppa fan from the jump, I would very much like to see it.

2. Danny Beard (last week: 4)

I really do think, if Ru had actually been there in person—not just via a potentially imaginary “video live link”—Danny might’ve won it this week. I ultimately think Cheddar’s work was superior, but both of our top queens this season turned it out in this challenge. Whereas Cheddar really moulded her partner to what she does, Danny met her partner where she was at, and welcomed into her particular world of drag in a really special way. I love that Mystique—or “Mizzy Moustache,” my favourite of the partners’ drag names—was given the space to express her hesitance with the beard, but then, through Danny’s guidance, embraced it. That, to me, is what a great makeover challenge performance is all about.

If you’ve got some metaphorical money to bet on Drag Race, I’d put your best odds on Danny taking this home. Ru’s praise of her has been effusive, she’s demonstrated facility in basically every challenge type (with the Snatch Game being a notable asterisk), and she’s brought some of the most memorable runway looks throughout the season. The only concern she has to face is a queen who took advantage of her minor stumble last week, and now has her fully matched in terms of win record.

1. Cheddar Gorgeous (last week: 1)

And we officially have a race on our hands, folks. Cheddar tied things up with Danny this week, scoring her third RuPeter Badge, while the only other queen with more than one (Dakota with two) sashayed away. I think it’s effectively impossible that either Pixie or Jonbers will be able to mount a comeback at this point, and while I believe Peppa could have a strong late-game run, even she could only tie Cheddar and Danny in wins by sweeping the rest of the season. Point blank, Cheddar is all but guaranteed to be in the finale.

Can she win if she gets there, though? Because this is RuPaul’s Drag Race UK, I’m nervous. Owing to this week’s judging quirk and the six-way win for the girl groups challenge, only one of Cheddar’s badges has been given solely to her by RuPaul himself: for Snatch Game, which was undeniable. Contrast that to how Ru has positively fawned over Danny, even in cases where others also did well. On UK, as we’ve seen time and again, who Ru’s favourite is matters. And I do think, if it comes down to these two, the safe money is on Danny. Cheddar will need to buck the trend to come out as the Season 4 champion.